Ralph Schoellhammer su Unherd riporta e commenta i risultati di uno studio dell’università di Amsterdam sugli effetti dell’immigrazione sulle finanze pubbliche olandesi.

A team led by mathematician Jan H. van de Beek at the University of Amsterdam estimates that the Dutch government spent approximately €17 billion per year on migration in the period between 1995 and 2019, meaning that more than one billion euros went to migration-related issues every month.

The study digs deeper still: annual net costs of non-Western immigration amount to €17 billion and the annual net benefits of Western immigration total one billion euros. Distinguishing between Western and non-Western migration patterns, the study comes to a startling conclusion: if immigration remains at 2015-2019 levels, the annual budget burden will increase from €17 billion in 2016 to about €50 billion. This is an increase that the welfare state would most likely not survive.

Le conclusioni sembrerebbe essere analoghe anche per altri paesi europei

The Dutch findings are mirrored in a similar study conducted by the Danish Finance Ministry, which concludes that non-Western immigrants are most likely to remain lifelong recipients of public finances compared to their Western or native Danish peers. Meanwhile, the picture in Germany is not much different: about 45% of those who receive unemployment benefits are not German citizens, costing the taxpayers around €20 billion per year. Austria shows similar numbers, with almost 60% of recipients having a “migrant background”.

Secondo l’autore dello studio, il problema risiederebbe nella struttura dello stato sociale, che crea incentivi sbagliati per i nuovi arrivati.

The European experience with Ukrainian refugees provides some evidence for this view: if access to government-paid services is too easily available, it discourages migrants from looking for work, regardless of their country of origin.