Un articolo di The Long View fa alcune considerazioni sull’epidemia di coronavirus, argomentando circa il fatto che i dati del governo cinese potrebbero non riflettere i numeri reali dell’epidemia e sul potenziale impatto di una sua diffusione nel resto del mondo.

When I first saw the headlines I looked at the total infections, total deaths and didn’t worry too much. Then I realized we are dealing with Chinese data. Chinese economic data has always been viewed with a heavy dose of skepticism and I don’t think their healthcare data should be treated any differently.

The number of cases reported outside of China suggest that the rate of infection domestically is much higher. International infection rates (mostly tied to Wuhan) now represent 4% of the reported total there. The mayor of Wuhan reported that 5 million residents left for the lunar holiday. Take the total number of international cases (30 and rising) as a percentage of total travelers and you can get a basic estimate of how widespread the disease is going to be. This is a very important distinction between past outbreaks (think SARS/MERS). The last time China faced a similar problem, they were much poorer and much less mobile. Since then, China has spent trillions building a national transportation network which includes airports, thousands of miles of new roads and a high speed rail network (Figure 1). Wuhan is connected to every major Chinese city by high speed rail, air and road. This drastically expands the ability of the virus to spread to other regions. Wuhan residents have become unknowing pollinators. There is a very real risk that this may not be contained.