Su suggerimento di @Dr. Bashir

Una breve rassegna a cura di Joshua Landis su possibili futuri sviluppi del conflitto siriano alla luce di quanto successo quest’ anno. Qui trovate anche l’analisi dell’anno passato e le previsioni per il 2015 di Aron Lund.

(Immagine tratta da Flickr)

 

Qui alcuni punti salienti dei due esperti :

Landis :

– Syria will become increasingly fragmented in 2015. The Somalia-ization of the country is inevitable so long as the international community degrades all centers of power in Syria and the opposition fails to unite.

Lund :

– In 2015, there are a few things to watch, including of course the Aleppo situation and the UN freeze, the international aerial campaign and whether it will burst the Islamic State bubble or not, the various international realignments, and the (lack of) efforts to contain Lebanon’s northeastern meltdown. But if I were to point to one single factor that gets nowhere near the attention it deserves and that could suddenly turn Syria upside down, it’s the regime’s fraying base: finances, infrastructure, and perhaps manpower.

Nelle mappe a cura di @Desyracuse, chi controlla cosa in Siria a fine anno (08/12/2014).

PS : ultimi sviluppi significativi vicino a Maarat al Numan e Qamishli