It might seem like “moderate” voters could consolidate behind one alternative to thwart Sanders’s path to the nomination. That’s possible, but one thing it assumes is that voters understand politics in ideological terms. And many don’t — political scientists have long found that most of the public does not fit into neat ideological boxes. […]

We can’t use ideology, by itself, to perfectly predict which candidates voters will rally behind as the field winnows. Which is why even if one moderate alternative were to emerge to Sanders, it doesn’t necessarily mean that candidate would benefit — Sanders could gain, too.

Ne parla fivethirtyeight.