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L’economia ai tempi della guerra russo-ucraina / 27 giugno – 10 luglio

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Il podcast del New York Times “The Daily” parla del mercato azionario americano che è entrato in fase “bear market” nell’episodio “The claws of a bear market”:

So investors fear, which has led them to sell stock and put the stock market into a bear market, is that the Fed is about to, basically, overreact to inflation by, perhaps, over raising interest rates and therefore damage the economy, send us into a recession.

Right, or even that the Fed, in order to get inflation down, the inflation problem is so bad that the Fed is going to have to put the economy in recession to do it. Almost like putting the patient in a coma briefly to try to — if we’re going to extend the metaphor, to try to make things better. And so that has a lot of other very bad effects if you do that. And so I think, investors are reflecting either the Fed’s going to do too much and get it wrong or just the amount the Fed has to do to tame inflation is just going to be really bad for the economy.

Dell’aumento del tasso di interesse negli USA parla anche il podcast The indicator nell’episodio “What took the Fed so long?”:

Inflation was ticking up quite a lot last year. And even though it’s the Fed’s job to keep prices stable, still, the Fed kept interest rates really low. It only started raising them recently. And so one question we want to get to the bottom of is, how did the Fed allow this to happen?

Nell’episodio, Bill Nelson, ex dipendente delle Federal Reserve, elenca le sei ragioni per cui la Fed ha atteso così a lungo per aumentare i tassi di interesse.

Il podcast Planet Money parla della possibile recessione americana ed, in particolare, delle 8 persone che si occupano di decidere se l’economia americana è effettivamente entrata in recessione, ovvero il “National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee“.

Per quanto riguarda invece l’economia italiana, Linkiesta discute del rischio di spirale prezzi-salari nell’episodio dell’8 giugno di War Room.


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