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Perché la Cina vincerà la guerra commerciale [EN]

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Su suggerimento di @Giovanni.

In un articolo per Foreign Policy Philippe Legrain spiega perché, nonostante la bilancia commerciale veda un ampio deficit statunitense, la Cina non cederà alle politiche tariffarie di Donald Trump.

Economically, both the United States and China would lose from a trade war. Punitive tariffs would push up import prices, dent exports, cost jobs, and crimp economic growth, so both sides would do best to avoid an outbreak of hostilities. But now that the Trump administration is threatening to impose 25 percent tariffs on $46 billion of U.S. imports from China and China has responded in kind, a trade war looms. Trump has since raised the stakes by threatening tariffs on a further $100 billion of imports (so far unspecified), which Beijing promptly said it would match. Trump’s calculation appears to be that China has more to lose and so will back down. He is wrong.

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