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L’economia ai tempi della guerra russo-ucraina / 21-27 marzo

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Questa settimana ci occupiamo dell’impatto economico del conflitto russo-ucraino sui paesi asiatici e del Medio Oriente.

La BBC parla delle divisioni dei paesi asiatici sulle sanzioni nei confronti della Russia:

While Western allies like Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have imposed sanctions, with Tokyo and Seoul blocking some Russian banks from the Swift global payments system, the impact is limited.

That is because the Asian nations who joined western-led sanctions make up only 8% of Russia’s global trade.

“Without having the two Asian giants China and India on board on sanctions who account for 18% of Russia’s trade, there is unlikely to be any significant impact on Russia,” says Professor Syed Munir Khasru, chairman of the international think tank, the Institute for Policy, Advocacy, and Governance.

Quartz si occupa più in dettaglio dell’impatto del conflitto russo-ucraino sull’economia indiana:

India had taken a neutral stance, born of its historic strategic partnership with Russia. This alliance, harking back to Cold War times, spans several fronts—diplomacy, defence, nuclear energy, and technology—making Russia a pivotal part of India’s nation-building process, especially during its infancy.

“Despite India’s limited direct exposure, the combination of supply disruptions and the ongoing terms of trade shock will likely weigh on growth, result in a sharper rise in inflation, and (lead to) a wider current account deficit,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist at Nomura Holdings in a report.

On March 13, Morgan Stanley lowered India’s GDP forecast for the fiscal year 2023 by 50 basis points to 7.9%, citing risks to macro stability due to high crude oil prices.

Al Jazeera parla delle conseguenze del conflitto russo-ucraino sulle economie dei paesi del Medio Oriente:

The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reverberated around the world, and the Middle East is no exception. Regional leaders, who have been appeasing both Washington and Moscow for almost a decade, are now being pressured to pick a side – but they still seem reluctant to do so. Most of them have publicly condemned the Russian invasion but refrained from taking any punitive measures against Moscow.

They have varied economic expectations – energy and wheat importers are bracing for the worst, while oil producers are anticipating a bump in revenues. But beyond the economy, the outcome of this conflict could have significant geopolitical implications for the region, including reshuffling alliances and re-charting gas pipeline routes.

If Russia captures the entire Ukrainian coast, it will tighten its control over the Black Sea, which would represent a challenge to Turkey. Still, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has long benefitted from the tense relationship between Washington and Moscow, sees an opportunity in this new conflict and believes he can turn it to its advantage. Yet he also does not want to provoke Putin, since he knows that any punitive Russian measures could damage the already fragile Turkish economy.


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